15 May 2013


Understanding Jesus

Geza Vermes

Geza Vermes, who has died aged 88, was one of the world's leading authorities on the origins of Christianity...
His achievements at Oxford were immense. He took on the editorship of the Journal of Jewish Studies, turning it into one of the foremost in its field, and collaborated with Fergus Millar and Martin Goodman on a major revision of Emil Schürer's multi-volume classic The History of the Jewish People in the Age of Jesus Christ. In Vermes's own truly epoch-making Jesus the Jew (1973), one of the earliest of his many studies of Jesus and the origins of Christianity, he helped launch the new quest for the historical Jesus...
Recognition followed thick and fast, including a fellowship of the British Academy, honorary doctorates from Edinburgh, Durham, Sheffield and the Central European University, Budapest, and a vote of congratulation by the US House of Representatives "for inspiring and educating the world".

His most delightful books:
                                                                         
CLICK
                             

20 April 2013


Path to the Nobel!

This year’s Johan Skytte Prize winner announced

Professor Robert Axelrod at Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy, University of Michigan, is the winner of the 2013 Johan Skytte Prize in political science. He is awarded the prize for “profoundly having changed our presumptions about the preconditions for human cooperation”. The Johan Skytte Prize is one of the finest and most prestigious prizes in political science.
The Johan Skytte Prize is awarded for the 19th year by the Johan Skytte Foundation at Uppsala University in a ceremony taking place in
Uppsala on the 28th of September 2013.
Robert Axelrod’s most cited and famous book “The Evolution of Cooperation” came out in 1984, preceded by a prize-winning article inScience 1981 co-authored together with biologist William D. Hamilton. The fundamental question of under which conditions cooperation and not conflict could become a beneficial strategy when self-interest is the individually driving force is at the centre of Robert Axelrod’s works. He shows that for reciprocity to develop, durable and long-term relations of an infinite nature are determinant.
Robert Axelrod has opened new research frontiers through his work and contributed to form political science, economics, sociology, anthropology, biology and computer science. His conclusions are decisive for improving our understanding of international relations, negotiations, complex organisations, and political decision-making bodies.


COMMENTS

I hosted Bob as the GU graduate school graduation speaker a few years ago.  He is a great thinker and nice person, too! 
George Shambaugh
Georgetown University

Congratulations, Robert Axelrod!
Matthew Shugart
University of California, Davis

11 April 2013


For Europe!

Spinelli Group Manifesto

Manifesto

« It will be the moment of new action and it will be the moment for new men: the moment for a free and united Europe », Altiero Spinelli
“Si je savois quelque chose utile à ma patrie, et qui fût préjudiciable à l’Europe,(…) je la regarderois comme un crime.” Montesquieu

More than ever, the challenges we face today are worldwide: climate change, resource exhaustion and environmental destruction, economic and financial regulation, nuclear threat and collective security, fairer trade, peace-building…
In this new world, every European country is a small country. But we have one advantage: we have built together a European Union. It is a remarkable construction in which European nation-states, some even long divided by protracted conflicts, decided to be “united in diversity” and form a Commonwealth, a Community in the true sense of the word.
Striving for shared peace and prosperity, we managed to work together and combine forces, thus fostering unprecedented prosperity, democracy and reconciliation on the continent. National states gave away sovereign powers to institutions in order to reach common goals and an “ever closer” Union.
Unfortunately, whereas the formidable challenges of a manifold crisis demand common responses, drawn at least at European level, too many politicians fall tempted to believing in national salvation only. In a time of interdependence and a globalised world, clinging to national sovereignties and intergovernmentalism is not only warfare against the European spirit; it is but an addiction to political impotence.
Today things are moving in the opposite direction, towards a looser instead of a closer Union, towards a more national instead of post-national Europe. Throwing the Community spirit behind, Member states let short-term national interests cloud the common vision. They favour intergovernmental solutions above European solutions. Almost to the point of breaking up the Euro, the most concrete symbol of European integration.
We oppose this backward and reactionary direction. Europe has been yet again abducted – by a coalition of national politicians. It is time to bring her back. We believe that this is not the moment for Europe to slow down further integration, but on the contrary to accelerate it. The history of the European Union has proven that more Europe, not less, is the answer to the problems we face. Only with European solutions and a renewed European spirit will we be able to tackle the worldwide challenges.
Nationalism is an ideology of the past. Our goal is a federal and post-national Europe, a Europe of the citizens. This was the dream the founding fathers worked so hard to achieve. This was the project of Altiero Spinelli. This is the Europe we will go for. Because this is the Europe of the future.

Members European Parliament (112 Signatures)

ARIF Kader  Alejandro CERCAS  Alexander Alvaro  Ana Gomes  Andrea Cozzolino  Andrew Duff  Andrey Kovatchev  Antolin Sanchez Presedo  Astrid Lulling  Barbara Matera   Bas Eickhout  Bill Newton Dunn  Britta Thomsen  Burkhard Balz  Catherine Greze   Charles Goerens   Claude Turmes  Cofferati Gaetano Sergio  Crocetta Rosario  Daniel Cohn Bendit  Danuta Hübner  Dirk Sterckx  Dr. Andreas Schwab  Dr. Horst Schnellhardt  Dr. Jorgo Chatzimarkakis  Edite Estrela  Edward McMillan-Scott  Elisa Ferreira  Elmar Brok  Eva Lichtenberger  Evgeni Kirilov  Francisco Sosa Wagner  Frank Engel  Franziska Brantner  Frédéric Daerden  GEORGIOS STAVRAKAKIS  Gerben-Jan Gerbrandy  Gianluca Susta  Graham Watson  Guido Milana  Guy Verhofstadt  Hannes Swoboda  Heide Rühle  Hélène Flautre  Indrek Tarand  Isabelle Durant  Jacek Protasiewicz  Jadot Yannick  Jan Mulder  Jean Luc Dehaene  Jean-Marie CAVADA  Jo Leinen  Josef Weidenholzer  Judith Sargentini  Justas Paleckis  Jutta Steinruck  Kathleen Van Brempt  Klaus-Heiner Lehne  Kyriakos Mavronikolas  LUIGI BERLINGUER  Lena Kolarska-Bobińska  Leonardo Domenici  Libor Roucek  Lidia Geringer de Oedenberg  Louis Michel  Malika Benarab-Attou  Marc Tarabella   Maria Badia i Cutchet  Maria Eleni Koppa  Maria Muniz de Urquiza  Marielle De Sarnez   Marije Cornelissen  Mariya Nedelcheva  Michael Theurer  Nathalie Griesbeck   Norbert Neuser  Othmar Karas  PODIMATA ANNI  Pascal Canfin  Patrizia Toia  Pavel Poc  Peter Simon  Philippe De Backer  Pino Arlacchi  Raimon Obiols  Ramon Tremosa-i-Balcells  Raül Romeva i Rueda  Renate Weber  Ria Oomen-Ruijten  Robert Rochefort  Roberto Gualtieri  Rui Tavares  Róża Thun  Salvatore Caronna  Sandrine Belier   Satu Hassi  Saïd El Khadraoui  Silvia Costa  Sirpa Pietikäinen  Spyros Danellis  Stephen Hughes MEP  Sylvie GUILLAUME  Sylvie Goulard  Tanja Fajon  Teresa Riera Madurell  Uggias Giommaria  Ulrike Lunacek  Vilja Savisaar-Toomast  Vital Moreira  Vittorio Prodi  Véronique De Keyzer  Zoran Thaler 

Public Signatures (5014 signatures so far)

Josep Colomer  Yvain Mahe  Dirk-Heine Hofstede  Baysse Johanna  Stefan Edelbroek  Olivier Hinnekens  Jensen  Frisch, Peter  Devillé Lauranne  Linda Scott  Robin Scott  Nawfal JORIO  Salima Kempenaer  Antony Bernard  Françoise HAINAUT  Christian Crahay  Perrin Carole  Montri  Quéré Jérôme  Alfredo Celsa  Fradin Marion  Maria Pachta  Valeria Givone, etc.

See the Manifesto and the full list of signatures, where you can also sign it up: CLICK  

COMMENTS

Signed
Rein Taagepera

I couln't agree more!
Jorge Dezcallar

02 March 2013

A precis in political science
Please CLICK on it for larger size (and printing)














COMMENTS


Atul Singh said…
This is terrific!
Can we please republish?
Thanks!
Fair Observer

Salvador Giner said…
Molt be que hi hagi un grupet de sociòlegs de la política al un racó del teu blog (Linz and co.)
Salvador Giner
Catalan Academy of Sciences and Humanities
Barcelona

Alfred Cuzan said….
Nice.  Thanks.
Alfred Cuzan
University of West Florida

Ben Reilly said…
Fantastic!
Ben
Australian National University

Rein Taagepera said…
Thanks!
A great honor!
Rein
University of California, Irvine

Joe Oppenheimer said...
Great cartoon.
Joe
University of Maryland

15 February 2013


Voting for Pope
Before resigning, Pope Benedict XVI reestablished the traditional requirement of two-thirds of cardinals for the election of his successor. John Paul II had modified the procedure so that if no candidate got the two thirds after four days of voting rounds, the winner would be the candidate with a majority of votes. This precipitated the election of Ratzinger, as on the very first day of the 2005 conclave the cardinals realized that the German would easily obtain the majority and decided not to wait for longer locked in, so there was ‘white smoke’ earlier than usual.
But the coming conclave has been announced with much more anticipation than customary. In contrast with the traditional secrecy and surprises, we can be afraid that we will have an intensive and extensive ecclesiastical and media discussion about the ‘papables’, more similar to a typical electoral campaign.
This still seems to be the standard article on the matter:
Josep Colomer & Iain Mc Lean: Electing Popes: CLICK
A summary in Spanish: CLICK


COMMENTS



  • Is it the case, Josep, that the rules include a top-two run-off from round 34 or so? And the previous rules: Was it a time limitation (4 days) rather than majority rule after a certain number of rounds?

    Josep Colomer said...

    As far as i remember, JP II rules applied in 2005 included 4 days at four rounds of voting per day (16 rounds) by 2/3, then move to 1/2 majority, and then after 34 rounds (so on the 9th day), top-two run-off. But Ratzinger was clearly ahead on the second round of the first day, so the cardinals decided to give him 2/3 on the second day and end the meeting.

    Jorge Dezcallar said...

    I was Ambassador in the Holy See when the media Pope John Paul II passed away...
    IN Spanish: CLICK

    Carlos M. de la Cruz, Sr. said...

    Josep, que bueno esta tu blog! Te felicito! 
    Un abrazo, 
    Carlos

    Iain McLain said...

    Josep – thanks for this. Glad our paper on Celestine V is topical!

27 January 2013


Is a Bigger House Better?

 

Sent to the NY Times in the intention to follow up the debate on ‘Sunday Review’

 


In order to increase the closeness between voters and their representatives and make Congress less dysfunctional, Gail L. Johnson proposes to reduce the size of the House of Representatives districts and increase House membership from 435 to about 3,100 (‘Sunday Dialogue: Is a Bigger House Better?’, Sunday January, 13). This way, voters would have personal knowledge of the people they sent to govern in Washington. But as some of his critics note, this would make the House unmanageable.

 

Let's look beyond the confines of one country. By trial and error, most countries have ended up with first house sizes that correspond to the cube root of their populations. For a US population of 315 million, this would mean 680 seats in the House. The US followed the cube root pattern up to the early 1900s, when the House size was frozen at 435. Yet the population kept growing. In contrast, most countries change the size of their houses when the population changes. The cube root of the population rule has been known for more than 30 years. (See, most recently, Rein Taagepera, Predicting Party Sizes, Oxford University Press, 2007).

Why does cube root work for most countries? Apply the engineering notion of minimizing major cost. Consider the communication load on a single representative. With too few representatives, each has too many constituents. With too many representatives, their communication load inside the assembly shoots up.  Cube root of population turns out to be optimal. The US House needs to be bigger than the current one, but much smaller than in Johnson’s proposal.

30 December 2012


My Debts to Albert O. Hirschman














In his office at the Institute for Advanced Study, Princeton, where I met him in 1996-1997.

My numerous intellectual debts to Albert Hirschman (1915-December 2012) include the following:

PARTICIPATION IN COLLECTIVE ACTION

At discussing collective action under dictatorial regimes, I elaborated that, for some people, “in spite of the drawbacks and privations of the activist life, action in itself may be subjectively experienced as gratifying if it involves personal independence, a certain scope for inventiveness and initiative, close fellowship with other people of similar tastes, and other qualities harder t find in more conformist and routine activity”.
In ‘Sisyphus and the Snowball’, chapter 3 in Colomer, Game Theory and the Transition to Democracy: The Spanish Model (1995). CLICK
All this chapter was a retrospective self-reflection based on participant-observation. It made sense thanks to Albert Hirschman’s “idea of participation as subjective gratifying in itself”, as presented in his book Shifting Involvements: Private Interest and Public Action (1982).

ACTORS IN POLITICAL CHANGE

All my modeling of democratization negotiations was based on the definition of three strategies --named Nondemocracy, Intermediate reform, and Democracy-- which permit six preference orders defining six strategic actors in a process of political change. These form three blocs: the Rulers, either hardliners or softliners, and the opposition, each with fractions of radicals and moderates.
All this was strongly inspired in an Albert Hirschman’s “digression” about “models of reformmongering” regarding alternatives for economic change, which was included, with the telling title ‘Engineering Reform with the Help of the Perspective of Revolution’, in his Journeys Toward Progress (1963), pp. 276 ff.
See my acknowledgements in Colomer, Game Theory and the Transition to Democracy (1995), p. 25, and in Strategic Transitions: Game Theory and Democratization (2000), p. 37.

MIGRATION POLITICS

Inspired by Albert Hirschman’s comment:
"Latin American powerholders have long encouraged their potential enemies and potential critics to remove themselves from the scene through voluntary exile." (Exit, Voice, and Loyalty, 1970: 60).

I took his categories of 'exit, 'voice'. and 'loyalty,' which Hirschman had applied to the analysis of emigration and protests in East Germany, for the analysis of the case of Cuba. I proposed to enlarge Hirschman’s scheme with a new category, ‘hostility’.
“Two dimensions can be distinguished: 1) the actors' motives: relative satisfaction or dissatisfaction with the present state of things in light of a conceivable alternative; 2) the action target: the present state or the alternative. In the case of Cuba, the present state of things is represented by a dictatorial government and a socialist economy, while a conceivable alternative, according to the information available to Cuban citizens, is a democratic regime with a capitalist economy such as the one represented by the United States. According to this scheme, relative dissatisfaction with the existing state can induce two actions: ‘Voice’, which is an action against the existing state, and ‘exit’, which is an action in favor of the alternative. Similarly, relative satisfaction or at least acquiescence with the existing state can be associated with two actions: 'loyalty’, which is an action in favor of the existing state, as presented in Hirschman’s original scheme, and 'hostility’, a term that I introduce to define an action against the alternative (manifested in anti-American and anti-imperialist sentiments). In other words, there are two possible actions regarding the existing state (the Cuban regime in our analysis): voice (against) and loyalty (in favor), and two possible actions regarding the alternative (the United States): exit (in favor) and hostility (against).
These definitions can help to clarify some relations of rivalry, complementarity, substitution and exclusion between the different political actions…

“At moderate levels of relative satisfaction with the present regime, ‘loyalty’ and ‘hostility’  are rival actions, but they can become complementary actions for highly satisfied people --extremely proud patriots may also be aggressively hostile to strangers... Like ‘voice’ and ‘loyalty’, also 'exit' and 'hostility' can become substitutive actions. When would-be emigrants run up against some restrictive U.S. migration policy, their frustration and resentment may convert the desire for 'exit' into 'hostility' towards the alternative state.”

Colomer, ‘Exit, Voice, and Hostility in Cuba’, International Migration Review, 2000, 34, 2: 423-442.

Sources:
Hirschman, A. O.
-    Exit, Voice, and Loyalty. Responses to Decline in Firms, Organizations, and States. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1970.
-    Rival Views of Market Society and Other Recent Essays. New York: Viking, 1986.
-    Essays in Trespassing: Economics to Politics and Beyond. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1981.
-    ‘Exit, Voice, and the Fate of the German Democratic Republic’, World Politics, 1993, 45 (2): 173-202.
-    A Propensity to Self Subversion. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1995.

26 December 2012

   Summary of 2012


    
              

08 December 2012

Happy New Year 2013
                          without elections!
      (except in Germany, Italy, and other few dozen countries...)

Previous years postcards:
(you can click on each for larger size)


15 November 2012



The New Chinese Emperor


The Chinese Communists have rediscovered old imperial procedures. After a few years of secret rivalries and a weeklong meeting in closed-door, smoke-filled rooms, the party rulers have appointed the new leader, Xi Jinping. It’s the second time that the Chinese communists achieve a peaceful leadership transition without the bloody conflicts and disorders that were typical of the party for many decades. As I discovered in the imperial palace in Beijing, appropriately also called the Forbidden City, the basic procedure currently used to appoint the leader heir was invented in the 18th century. Before that, when the successor of the emperor was appointed openly, usually his siblings fought him in rivalry for the office. In reaction, emperor Yongzheng set up the system of the ‘Heir Apparent Box’, by which the name of the successor was written in a document sealed within a box placed behind the board of the throne, while the emperor always carried a copy with him. After the emperor passed away, the secretly appointed crown prince would ascend the throne. Somehow, this procedure was also reinvented in Mexico by the Revolutionary Institutional Party, PRI, as each Mexican president appointed his own successor, usually known as ‘The Covered’ (el tapado), over a period of about sixty years.

This procedure of secret appointment, which the Chinese communists introduced just five years ago, may not only solve the problem of succession by nonviolent means. It can also trigger attraction and faithful supports to the incumbent leader during his mandate by all potential candidates for nomination for successor. Some stability can be attained. Yet, as happened this time, an agreement is not likely to be reached much before the last moment. 


COMMENTS


Simon Hix said... 

Hi Josep,
And similar to the Roman Empire, where the Emperor nominated his successor on his deathbed - which wasn't always a harmonious transition of power, of course.

Cheers,

Simon 
London School of Economics


Angel Gil-Ordonez said...

Gracias Josep, excelente artículo y muy interesante. 
Ojalá Obama pudiera hacer lo mismo con Hillary!!

Abrazos, 

Angel
Georgetown University

07 November 2012

Voting in Washington











We all were a little tired of 10-month campaigns, like this little girl:





CLICK
(20")








But we could understand a few things with the help of political science:

1. 
Turnout tends to be higher in competitive elections.

I visited voting polls in DC, where more than 90 percent of votes went for Obama, and in Arlington, Virginia (just at the other side of the bridge over the Potomac River), which was expected to be decisive to make a winner.
I was told that from 6a.m. to 8a.m., that is before many people went to their regular jobs, one could have to wait for two hours on line to vote. When I was in Arlington, at about 3p.m., it still took about half an hour. At the expected time for closing the polls, there was still a lot of people waiting so they expanded the schedule. In some parts of the country, people waited for up to five hours on line.
With more than 131 million people voting, the media trumps record turnout --it was 58 percent four years ago, highest record in 40 years.

This is the Virginia ballot (as distributed by Democratic activists, with all the choices already marked in favor of the party's candidates):

(You can click on it for larger size)









2. 
The electoral college electoral system simplifies a vast and varied territory.

Actually the two campaigns focused on a few states, as shown in this map:



And 10 of these 11 states went to swing on the side of the Democratic presidential candidate.


3.
The incumbent's advantage counts.

Once more, so many repeated exercises in "election forecast" don't make sense, as they are based on variables observed months before the election and thus implying that the electoral campaign is not going to make a difference. In this vein, this year the mantra was "no president has won reelection with more than 7 percent unemployment" (already criticized in this Blog: CLICK 1, CLICK 2).
Yet, beyond the state of the economy and some other salient issues in the campaigns, beyond the race, the religion and the personal character of the candidates, the crucial factor seems to have been the incumbency advantage. The explanation may be that even when the record in government is not brilliant, as is the case, the incumbent can be evaluated on the basis of facts, while the challenger has to be estimated only from speculative hypotheses about what it could be. As that guy said, "power erodes... especially those who don't have it." Indeed, since 1948 the incumbent president running for reelection has won in seven of nine elections (while in open elections without the incumbent running the opposition party won in six of eight cases).


4.
Divided government.

Not much is going to change, as the Democrats will control the Senate (but submitted to the filibuster rule available to the Republicans) and the Republicans will control the House. In the United States, the Presidency is an aggregative mechanism to make some unity in such huge and varied country. But with two-term limit and strong institutional checks and balances, the Presidency is not that powerful. Its actual powers tend to be overrated; in fact the system increasingly approaches some features of an elective monarchy in which, as was traditionally said, the president reigns but does not rule.
Which is not bad at all, after all.

x

22 October 2012

Concentric Circles in Europe

The peripheries of Europe tend to split. It was traditionally observed that the most prosperous regions in Europe were those relatively closer within each state to the industrial area around the Rhine and Ruhr rivers in Germany, the core of early industrialization. In the current process, as Germany is also becoming the financial and political core of the European Union, those same regions relatively closer to the core tend to split from their states. See in the map how concentric circles centered on the Rhine-Ruhr within the larger states can help to explain some past splits (including Czecho-Slovakia and the former Soviet Union and Yugoslavia), as well as some current political developments.
There have been recent elections for the autonomous parliaments of the Basque Country and Galicia, in Spain. The Basque elections were the first fully democratic as there is no more terrorist violence by ETA and its party ran legally in the election. The two Basque parties in favor of more self-government and independence, one on the center-right and the one on the left (the one just mentioned), got together two-thirds of the votes and seats. In contrast, in Galicia, a periphery of the periphery, the strong Spanish nationalist People’s Party won again. But the two nationalist candidacies increased their total amount of votes which together surpassed the second Spain-wide party, the Socialists.
Meanwhile, during the last few weeks, the Scottish government has agreed with the British government the call of a referendum for independence of Scotland in two years from now.  In this case, it's England that is moving increasingly away from the European Union process and then the peripheral Scotland that tries to move closer to it. The government of Catalonia has also announced, in this case without any arrangement with the Spanish government, the call of a referendum within the current legislative period on whether Catalonia should become a new state in the European Union. In Belgium, the formation of a federal government after a very long period without it seems not to have hindered Flanders’ enhanced self-government. The map suggests explanations for other economic unbalances, such as those in the Nordic countries and in some Eastern EU members, and some potential political splits within currently existing states, including Padania in Northern Italy and the division of Ukraine between pro-Europeans and pro-Russians. Nevertheless, significantly different capacity of state institutions to manage latent divergences will induce varied political developments.


16 October 2012

From the Nobel Prize in Economics:

"Theorem 1:
There always exists a stable set of marriages."

Lloyd Shapley
(Nobel Prize awarded 2012), 'College Admissions and the Stability of Marriage' (with D. Gale), The American Mathematical Monthly, 69, 1, 1962
Article: CLICK

01 September 2012

Obama's reelection is unprecedented

As published in The Washington Post, Sep. 1, 2012:


















COMMENTS

Richard L. Engstrom said...

Good point Josep.  
I hope Dana gets it!  

Dick
New Orleans


Eric Hershberg said...

An excellent point, Josep....
I enjoy reading the blog.
Cheers,
Eric
American University 



Yolanda Monge said...

por fin!
alguien lo dice y lo dice TAN BIEN!

Washington 

Angel Gil-Ordonez said...

BRAVO Professor!
Abrazos,
Angel 

Washington

Gustau Alegret said...

Bon punt, Josep.
Gràcies!!

Washington